Date/Time: 03-21-1996 / 01:00:00 Zulu
Location: Taiwan Straits

Introduction

China had nearly gone to war with the United States over Taiwan in 1996. Tensions were high as the movement to proclaim Taiwanese independence from the mainland had gained steam due to legislative elections in 1995, and then a Taiwanese presidential election in March 1996 that would choose a new president by popular vote. President Lee Tien-hui had also been invited to the US and given a speech at Cornell University in the United States in June 1995 which infuriated China. The United States had seemingly recognized him as a leader of a sovereign nation breaking with the "one China" policy which had kept the peace for decades. The United States looked at this as another attempt by China to intimidate Taiwan out of its right of self determination and bully its smaller neighbor.

China and the United States both responded by using visual demonstations of military force that further escalated the situation. China responded directly to the presidential visit by conducting ballistic missile tests just eighty five nautical miles north of Taiwan in July 1995 into known international shipping lanes, effectively blockading them, and then followed up with naval exercises just northwest of the missiles' splash zones. In December 1995 China conducted significant air and amphibious assault exercises timed to coincide with, and intimidate, the Taiwanese Parliamentrary Election. The United States responded by sending the USS Nimitz carrier battlegroup through the Straits of Taiwan in a show of force. Finally in March 1996, the month of elections, China conducted significant air and naval exercises as well as a missile exercises with splash zones fifty nautical from both of Kaohsiung and Keelung, effectively blockading Taiwan's largest ports. The United states had responded by sending both the Nimitz and Independence battlegroup to show its resolve in defending Taiwan.

The political end result was suprisingly mostly peaceful. Elections were successfully held and there was no proclamation or move toward recognition of Taiwanese independence. Political events in Taiwan, world wide economic shifts and war in southwest Asia would slowly shift attention away and drive tensions down with all parties accepting the status quo. Underneath all this though, the United States and China had sparked another geopoltical superpower rivalry that would grow for decades to to come.

The military implications were tremendous for both the United States and China. First, China realized that it was outmatched by US naval and air power and must develop a strike complex which could deal with the US far from it shores. To do this it had to completely modernize its military forces, including mass investment in modern sensors, communications, weaponry and military structure. The United States realized that China had the ability to use its military force to challenge its traditional command of the air and seas, and that in the future China would be its principal rival.

Lessons were learned but unfortunately due to world events only China would be able to capitalize on it early on. The United States was attacked by terrorists in 2001 and then found itself in numerous wars and insurgencies throughout the world. The costs in brainpower, money, people and material was tremenous, leaving a much smaller portion than what was needed for a significant pivot toward China. It would cost the United States dearly in the coming years ahead.

 

Scenario Notes:

This bonus scenario is a demonstration of what could have happened if the United States and China went to war in March 1996. My hope is players get a sense of why China proceeded on such an extensive modernization and to also show the tremendous challenge freedom on navigation exercises are in any scenario. They also get to play with the US Navy during one of its more dominant periods.

This is a single-sided scenario playable from the US side only.